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When the Minnesota Vikings signed Sam Darnold earlier this year, it was to serve as a bridge quarterback to whichever player the team landed in the 2024 NFL draft.
Now sure, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah surely had some preferences as to who he would like to end up with, maybe Michael Pennix, maybe JJ McCarthy, or maybe even Drake Maye, had he fallen out of the top three. But in the end, the choice came down to the Michigan signal caller and Bo Nix, and the Vikings chose accordingly, betting on the collegiate Wolverine instead of the well-traveled Auburn/Oregon quarterback.
Now granted, so far, this decision doesn't necessarily look like a mistake, as McCarthy has been out all season after suffering a season-ending torn meniscus in his right knee, but Nix has been lighting it up for the Broncos, performing like the second-best quarterback in class that also features Caleb Williams, which will inevitably lead to some second guessing if that continues.
Fortunately for Minnesota, they've actually gotten better quarterback play than what Nix has brought to the table in 2024, with their signal caller a top-5 choice for league MVP, not just Rookie of the Year.
The problem? The player who has been making the season shiny and bright in Minnesota has been Darnold, who has looked like the player many expected him to be all the way back in 2018. The Vikings are fighting for the first-overall seed in the NFC largely because of Darnold's play, and yet, despite their success, his impressive play, and the seemingly limitless ceiling the team could have with the 27-year-old in charge, Minnesota hasn't approached Darnold about a long-term extension, securing the team the sort of stability at the position they were hoping for when they drafted McCarthy 10th overall.
Are there some contributing factors to keeping on the McCarthy path moving forward? Yes, his contract is worth a fraction of what Darnold could command on the open market and will be for the next three years at minimum. But will McCarthy ever play at the level Darnold has in 2024? Is that a risk the Vikings should take? That might be one of the more interesting questions in the NFL right now, but for my money, I wouldn't recommend it, especially if Darnold takes the team deep into the playoffs.
Why the Vikings need to re-sign Sam Darnold in 2025
1. Sam Darnold is a proven winner in Kevin O'Connell's system
One of the hardest questions to answer in the NFL is how a player will translate into a new system.
Teams can invest millions into scouting at all levels, talk to former coaches, and even ask former teammates whether they went to a player's birthday party, and yet, no one can really know how things will work out until they actually hit the field in a scheme and execute what's being called. That's why some high draft picks bust out, some free agents get released despite landing massive contracts, and why a player will come out of nowhere on a prove-it deal to become a long-term force.
In 2024, Darnold unquestionably fell into the final category, signing a one-year, $10 million contract – which, admittedly, is pretty good – to serve as a bridge quarterback before turning into one of the greatest values in the NFL.
Taking the field in Week 1 with no real expectations, as the season was already considered somewhat of a bust because of McCarthy's injury, Darnold did something he's never done at the professional level: play winning football for more than a month or so at a time. Earning his most starts since all the way back in 2020 with the New York Jets, Darnold completed 310 of his 461 for 3,776 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions through 15 games. He's looked poised in the pocket for O'Connell, made good decisions under center, and has formed instant chemistry with the Vikings' top stars, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and beyond.
And the best part? The only ghosts he's been seeing are his opponents, as his Vikings are a win away from securing the top seed in the NFC heading into Week 18.
Could this be a one-year wonder for the pride of USC? Potentially so, but O'Connell, Jefferson, and Addison aren't going anywhere anytime soon. While it may be hard to find $20 million, $30 million, or even $40 million to keep him around, the Vikings dream of being able to give McCarthy that sort of contract a few years down the line when they drafted him, as that would mean they have an MVP-caliber quarterback under center into the future. Though the timeline may be sped up, Darnold doesn't turn 28 until June and could be worthy of another massive deal in four or five years if his play justifies it, so it's not like he's some Joe Flacco-type playing on borrowed time.
2. JJ McCarthy still has value, no matter how you slice it
Alright, so if the Vikings decide to keep Darnold, what does that mean for McCarthy? Well, that's really a choose-your-own-adventure for the front office.
Would the Vikings consider trading away McCarthy one year after he was drafted by the team, giving him the Josh Rosen treatment without appearing in a single game? For the sake of argument, let's say they would. If the Vikings put the pride of Michigan on the block, what would they garner for his services? A second-round pick all day for a player Jim Harbaugh called the best QB in the draft? Or would some team picking at the bottom of the first round, say the Los Angeles Rams, see a chance to land a quality young arm behind an older veteran and give up their top selection for McCarthy's services, even if they also get something like a future fourth-round pick back to make the deal feel even value-wise?
After surrendering a third and fourth-round pick in 2025 to trade up for Dallas Turner, the Vikings could use additional draft selections to keep their roster loaded up with young, ascending talent. If trading away a backup quarterback could net at least one more starter on a cost-controlled contract, maybe even two, then the idea of investing big in Darnold becomes more palatable moving forward.
But what if the Vikings don't want to trade McCarthy? Well, that's okay, too.
Remember, if you will, back to 2019 when the Eagles drafted Jalen Hurts in the second round despite having Carson Wentz on a nine-figure contract. Yes, that upset Wentz, but no one really cares how the current Chiefs backup QB feels at the moment, as Hurts has now earned his own nine-figure contract and will soon be leading the second seed in the NFC once more when he eventually clears concussion protocol.
Similarly, the Falcons were shaded for drafting Michael Pennix Jr. after giving Kirk Cousins a huge contract, but now, that decision looks incredibly bright, with the Washington product locked in as their quarterback of the future after the former Vikings signal-caller fell off in a major way.
If the Vikings decide to keep McCarthy as a cheap, developmental backup, it would be no different than what the Eagles did with Hurts or the Falcons did with Pennix, only they drafted him before giving out that huge NFL contract, not after it. Darnold can continue to shine as O'Connell's top arm, McCarthy can continue to grow, and if the former falls off, Minnesota will already have the heir apparent waiting in the wings.
