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There are no teams on bye, no games outside of the weekend, and no games that aren't divisional rivalry matchups. Week 18 of the NFL season is filled with nothing but high-stakes battles. All 32 NFL teams will play in the last game of the regular season, and there are still a number of teams hoping to make the playoffs and a handful of other teams looking to secure a better postseason seed. Some tanking teams could even be looking to improve their draft slot. In this article, we are going to look at all of the playoff-clinching and seeding scenarios for Week 18 of the NFL season.
2024 AFC playoff scenarios
Clinched teams:
Kansas City Chiefs (15-1): Clinched AFC West and No. 1 seed/first-round bye/home-field advantage
Buffalo Bills (13-3): Clinched AFC East and No. 2 seed
Houston Texans (9-7): Clinched AFC South and No. 4 seed
Baltimore Ravens (11-5): Clinched playoff berth
Los Angeles Chargers (10-6): Clinched playoff berth
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6): Clinched playoff berth
Scenarios:
Ravens (facing Cleveland Browns) clinch the AFC North and No. 3 seed with
- Ravens win or tie
- Steelers loss or tie
Steelers (facing Cincinnati Bengals) clinch AFC North and No. 3 seed with
- Steelers win and Ravens loss
Bengals (8-8) clinch a playoff berth with
- Bengals win and Denver Broncos loss and Miami Dolphins loss or tie
Denver Broncos (9-7) (facing Chiefs) clinch a playoff berth with
- Broncos win or tie
- Dolphins loss or tie and Bengals loss or tie
Dolphins (8-8) (facing New York Jets) clinch a playoff berth with
- Dolphins win and Dolphins loss
2024 NFC playoff scenarios
Clinched teams:
Philadelphia Eagles (13-3): Clinched NFC East and No. 2 seed
Los Angeles Rams (10-6): Clinched NFC West
Detroit Lions (14-2): Clinched playoff berth
Green Bay Packers (11-5): Clinched playoff berth
Minnesota Vikings (14-2): Clinched playoff berth
Washington Commanders (11-5): Clinched playoff berth
Scenarios:
Lions (facing Vikings) clinch NFC North and No. 1 seed/first-round bye/home-field advantage with
- Lions win or tie
Vikings clinch NFC North and No. 1 seed/first-round bye/home-field advantage with
- Vikings win
Atlanta Falcons (8-8) (facing Carolina Panthers) clinch NFC South with
- Falcons win and Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss
Buccaneers (9-7) (facing New Orleans Saints) clinch NFC South with
- Buccaneers win or tie
- Falcons loss or tie
Seeding likelihood
These are the percentage chance that each team could claim all seven seeds in each conference in Week 18, according to ESPN.
AFC:
No. 1: Chiefs
No. 2: Bills
No. 3: Ravens 94.6%, Steelers 5.4%
No. 4: Texans
No. 5: Steelers 67.7%, Chargers 26.9%, Ravens 5.4%
No. 6: Chargers 73.1%, Steelers 26.9%
No. 7: Broncos 64.3%, Dolphins 25.3%, Bengals 10.4%
NFC:
No. 1: Lions 65.2%, Vikings 34.8%
No. 2: Eagles
No. 3: Rams 65.9%, Buccaneers 34.1%
No. 4: Buccaneers 50.1%, Rams 34.1%, Falcons 15.8%
No. 5: Vikings 65.2%, Lions 24.8%
No. 6: Commanders 73.9%, Packers 26.1%
No. 7: Packers 73.9%, Commanders 26.1%
Postseason bracket
No. 2 seed vs. No. 7 seed
No. 3 seed vs. No. 6 seed
No. 4 seed vs. No. 5 seed
First-round bye goes to the No. 1 seed
2025 NFL Draft scenarios
Ten teams have five or fewers wins heading into Week 18. Here are the scenarios for teams to earn the number one draft pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
New England Patriots secure the number one pick with
- Patriots loss to the Bills
Tennessee Titans secure the number one pick with
- Titans loss to the Texans and Patriots win over the Bills
Cleveland Browns secure the number one pick with
- Browns loss to the Ravens and wins or ties by the Titans and Patriots
New York Giants secure the number one pick with
- Giants loss to the Eagles and wins or ties by the Patriots, Titans, and Browns.
