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The Atlanta Falcons have put themselves back in control of the NFC South. After enduring a rough patch with four consecutive losses and nearly tripping over themselves in a close win against the struggling Las Vegas Raiders, they have now regained some stability with two straight victories.
But their return to the top of the division hasn’t been entirely of their own doing—it’s been a combination of their resurgence and their rivals faltering.
Raheem Morris makes the change from Kirk Cousins to Michael Penix Jr.
When Kirk Cousins made his return to Minnesota to face his old team, it was far from a storybook homecoming. The Falcons were routed by the Vikings, marking their fourth straight loss and second blowout by at least three scores.
Cousins’ steep decline in performance was a major factor in the losing streak. During that stretch, he led the league in turnovers and failed to throw a single touchdown pass.
After an uninspiring win against the Raiders on Monday Night Football, where the offense once again stalled, head coach Raheem Morris made the bold decision to bench Cousins in favor of rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr., the team’s No. 8 overall pick.
Penix made his first NFL start in Week 16 against the 2-13 New York Giants. Though the competition wasn’t stiff, the matchup was exactly what the Falcons and their rookie quarterback needed. Atlanta dominated 34-7, and the win helped them reclaim the NFC South lead and the No. 4 seed in the NFC playoff picture.
Buccaneers stumble on Sunday Night Football against the Cowboys
While the Falcons handled their business, the pressure was on Tampa Bay to deliver in a critical Sunday Night Football matchup against the Cowboys. The Buccaneers had been surging, winning four straight and reclaiming the division lead in Week 14. But they faltered in Dallas.
Despite learning before the game that they were eliminated from playoff contention, the Cowboys delivered one of their best performances of the season (all things considered). Their defense forced two fourth-quarter turnovers to secure a 26-24 victory, dealing a crushing blow to the Bucs.
The loss knocked Tampa Bay out of the No. 4 seed and down to the No. 8 seed in the NFC playoff picture, making them the first team out. Depending on how Week 17 unfolds, this could be the last time Tampa Bay is playoff eligible this season.
Falcons can wrap up the division in Week 17
The Falcons have a chance to clinch the NFC South in Week 17 and start preparing for the playoffs early. However, a couple of things need to go their way for that to happen.
First, Atlanta holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Tampa Bay, thanks to sweeping the season series. That edge puts them in control heading into the penultimate week. To seal the deal, the Falcons must take care of business on the road against a strong Commanders team led by former Atlanta coach Dan Quinn. This will be a tough test, particularly for rookie quarterback Penix, who will be making just his second career start.
The second piece of the puzzle involves the Buccaneers losing to the Carolina Panthers in Week 17, according to ESPN's breakdown of playoff clinching scenarios. Their previous meeting in Week 13 was a nail-biter. Carolina took the go-ahead lead with only 30 seconds remaining but the Bucs tied it up with a field goal to take it to overtime. Eventually, it was a Chubba Hubbard fumble inside Tampa Bay territory that led to a 26-23 loss.
Carolina has looked much better in recent weeks, highlighted by their 36-30 overtime victory over the Arizona Cardinals, which eliminated Arizona from playoff contention. If the Panthers can finish the job this time, they could effectively end Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes and hand the NFC South crown to Atlanta.
