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The Atlanta Falcons head to Washington to take on the Commanders as they look to push toward an NFC South crown and playoff birth back on Sunday in this Week 17 matchup. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Falcons-Commanders prediction and pick.
Falcons-Commanders Last Game – Matchup History
In a thrilling Week 7 matchup on October 15, 2023, the Washington Commanders edged out the Atlanta Falcons 24-16 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Sam Howell showcased his potential, throwing for 151 yards and three touchdowns, while the Commanders' defense stifled Desmond Ridder, forcing three interceptions. Despite a late surge by the Falcons, including a touchdown pass from Taylor Heinicke to Drake London, Washington's defense held firm to secure the victory. This win extended the Commanders' recent dominance in the series, marking their third consecutive victory against Atlanta. In the all-time series, the Commanders hold a 18-10-1 advantage over the Falcons.
Overall Series: 18-10-1 (Commanders)
Here are the Falcons-Commanders NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Falcons-Commanders Odds
Atlanta Falcons: +4.5 (-115)
Moneyline: +172
Washington Commanders: -4.5 (-105)
Moneyline: -205
Over: 48.5 (-105)
Under: 48.5 (-115)
How to Watch Falcons vs. Commanders
Time: 8:20 PM ET/5:20 PM PT
TV: NBC
*Watch NFL games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Falcons Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Atlanta Falcons are primed to secure a crucial victory against the Washington Commanders in Week 17, bolstered by their potent offensive weaponry and a resilient defense. With rookie quarterback Michael Penix at the helm, the Falcons have demonstrated significant growth, particularly in their rushing attack led by Bijan Robinson. Robinson's explosive running style poses a serious threat to a Commanders' defense that has struggled against the run at times this season. If the Falcons can establish the ground game early, it will open up opportunities for play-action passes, allowing Penix to exploit mismatches in the secondary.
Additionally, Atlanta's defensive unit has shown improvement, especially in pass rush efficiency. The Falcons have recorded 75 pressures over the last month, ranking them among the top teams in the league. This increased pressure could disrupt Washington's offensive rhythm and force mistakes from quarterback Jayden Daniels. With playoff implications on the line for both teams, expect the Falcons to harness their momentum from recent performances and capitalize on Washington's vulnerabilities. If they can maintain their focus and execute effectively, Atlanta is well-positioned to emerge victorious in this pivotal matchup.
Why The Commanders Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Washington Commanders are poised to secure a crucial victory against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 17, potentially cementing their playoff berth. Jayden Daniels has been the driving force behind the Commanders' success this season, amassing 3,303 passing yards and showcasing his dual-threat ability with 737 rushing yards. His dynamic playmaking skills, coupled with the explosive receiving talent of Terry McLaurin, who has already surpassed 1,000 yards this season, present a formidable challenge for the Falcons' defense. The Commanders' offensive line, which struggled in recent weeks, has an opportunity to rebound against a Falcons pass rush that, while improving, still ranks in the bottom half of the league in several categories.
Defensively, the Commanders have been opportunistic, with players like Bobby Wagner anchoring the unit with 118 tackles. Their ability to generate pressure, evidenced by 65 sacks on the season compared to Atlanta's 39, could disrupt the Falcons' offensive rhythm. The Commanders' experience in high-pressure situations, coupled with their home-field advantage at FedExField, gives them a significant edge. With the playoffs on the line and the momentum from their recent victory over the Eagles, the Commanders are well-positioned to capitalize on the inexperience of Falcons' rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who will be making only his second NFL start in a primetime environment. This combination of offensive firepower, defensive prowess, and situational advantage makes the Commanders the favorites to emerge victorious in this critical Week 17 matchup.
Final Falcons-Commanders Prediction & Pick
In the Week 17 matchup, the Washington Commanders -4.5 are favored against the Atlanta Falcons, and they are likely to cover the spread. The Commanders are riding high after a significant victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, which has boosted their confidence as they push for a playoff spot. Jayden Daniels has been exceptional, showcasing his dual-threat capability, which will be crucial against a Falcons defense that struggles to contain mobile quarterbacks. On the other hand, the Falcons will rely heavily on rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who is making only his second start in a high-pressure environment. While Penix showed promise in his debut, the Commanders' defense, ranked among the top in the league, presents a formidable challenge. With Washington's home-field advantage and their motivation to secure a playoff berth, expect them to leverage their experience and offensive firepower to secure a convincing win, covering the -4.5 spread in the process.
Final Falcons-Commanders Prediction & Pick: Washington Commanders -4.5 (-105), Under 48.5 (-115)
