The Los Angeles Chargers will head to Massachusetts for a showdown with the New England Patriots. It will be a cold clash at Gilette Stadium as we continue our NFL odds series with a Chargers-Patriots prediction and pick.
Chargers-Patriots Last Game – Matchup History
The Chargers and Patriots played a defensive struggle last season on December 3, 2023, with Los Angeles overcoming New England 6-0 at Foxboro. Justin Herbert is 1-2 against the Patriots over three games and has passed for 644 yards, two touchdowns, and four interceptions. He will attempt to remedy those numbers while the Chargers defense looks to shut down the Patriots for a second consecutive season.
Overall Series: Patriots lead 27-16-2.
Here are the Chargers-Patriots NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Chargers-Patriots Odds
Los Angeles Chargers: -4.5 (-105)
Moneyline: -215
New England Patriots: +4.5 (-115)
Moneyline: +180
Over: 43.5 (-102)
Under: 43.5 (-120)
How to Watch Chargers vs. Patriots
Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00 AM PT
TV: NFL Network
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Why The Chargers Could Cover The Spread/Win
This is a big week, as the Chargers can clinch a playoff spot through several scenarios. Significantly, it has been their best season since 2022, and the Chargers are poised to make a playoff appearance under first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh.
Herbert leads the offense with 2,343 yards, 18 touchdowns, and three interceptions. Amazingly, he has been solid even without healthy running backs. JK Dobbins has a knee issue but did practice this week. So far, he has rushed 158 times for 766 yards and eight touchdowns. Gus Edwards has an ankle injury. Ultimately, he has rushed 101 times for 365 yards and four scores. Ladd McConkey has been a solid receiver in his rookie season, catching 69 passes for 960 yards and five touchdowns. Also, Quentin Johnson has 37 receptions for 477 yards and eight touchdowns.
The defense has been exceptional this season. Tuli Tuipulotu has been solid, with 20 solo tackles and 7.5 sacks. Meanwhile, Joey Bosa has notched 16 solo tackles and five sacks. Bud Dupree has added 17 solo tackles, six sacks, and one interception. Likewise, cornerback Tarheeb Still has been great, with 36 solo tackles and four interceptions. This defense
The defense has been so good that they are second in points allowed this season, falling only behind the Kansas City Chiefs. The loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was the only game where their defense struggled. Otherwise, it's been an excellent year for the unit.
The Chargers will cover the spread if Herbert can get the ball out, and they can run the ball well with whoever starts at running back. Then, the defense must continue to produce and stop the Patriots from moving the ball down the field.
Why The Patriots Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Patriots are about to finish another losing season and look very different from the dynasty that existed a decade ago. Unfortunately, this franchise has hit hard times, and those rough ventures have continued with every week. The offense has been offensive, not in the best way, but more in their struggles to put any coherent points on the board.
Drake Maye has endured some struggles in his rookie season. So far, he has passed for 2,159 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. There is room for improvement as Maye attempts to end the season on a positive note. Meanwhile, the running game is in flux. While Rhamondre Stevenson has run 205 times for 800 yards and seven touchdowns, he might cede some snaps to Antonio Gibson this Saturday. Gibson has rushed 96 times for 434 yards and one touchdown. Additionally, the pass-catchers have not been much to write home about. However, tight end Hunter Henry has been solid, with 66 receptions for 674 yards and two scores.
The defense has had some good moments over the weeks. However, only Keion White has stood out, with 38 solo tackles and five sacks. Someone else on this defense must step up.
The Patriots will cover the spread if they can establish a decent running game and attack this tough defense. Then, they must stop Herbert from dominating them.
Final Chargers-Patriots Prediction & Pick
The Chargers are 10-5-1 against the spread, while the Patriots are 6-8-1 against the odds. Moreover, the Chargers are 5-2 against the spread on the road, while the Pats are 2-3-1 against the odds at home. The Chargers are 7-3 against the spread when facing the AFC, while the Patriots are 5-5 against the odds when facing the conference.
I like the Chargers in this one. Simply put, they have the stronger motivation to win this game and have done really well at covering the spread on the road. They are also much better than the Patriots and have already excelled here before. Expect them to do it again.
Final Chargers-Patriots Prediction & Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -4.5 (-105)