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There is one game left in Week 16 as the Green Bay Packers host the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football. But that means the AFC games are finished and the playoff picture has cleared up. The Chargers beat the Broncos on Thursday night, starting the week with a big win. Wins by the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens helped clear things up as well. We'll take a look at the AFC playoff picture heading into Week 17.
Five of the seven AFC playoff spots are clinched through 16 weeks. The Broncos could have clinched a spot by beating the Chargers on Thursday but they collapsed in the second half. That win sent the Bolts' playoff chances to 94%, so there is a very slim chance the playoffs change in the final two weeks. But anything can happen in the NFL and until there is an X next to seven teams, nothing is locked in.
Week 16 is over and done and the holidays are around the corner. Who is in a playoff spot and who is grasping to slim chances? Here is the AFC playoff picture.
#1: Kansas City Chiefs (14-1, 1st in AFC West)
The Chiefs won another one-possession game on Saturday, beating the Houston Texans 27-19. They have a quick turnaround for a Wednesday game against the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road. Mahomes and the crew have a magic number of one to clinch the AFC's top seed. If they win, they will secure the all-important bye in the first round.
#2: Buffalo Bills (12-3, 1st in AFC East)
Despite going down 14-0 in the first quarter, the Bills took down the Patriots at home in Week 16. They have already won the AFC East and are nearing a clinch of the number two seed. That does not mean what it used to be with the extra playoff team but it does mean more playoff football in Orchard Park.
#3: Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5, t-1st in AFC North)
The Steelers lost an important game to the Ravens on Saturday that brought the two teams to a tie. Pittsburgh would win the division if they ended with identical records because of their conference winning percentage. That makes both Christmas Day games very important, as the Steelers host the Chiefs and the Ravens travel to Houston.
#4: Houston Texans (9-6, 1st in AFC South)
The Texans lost more than just the game on Sunday. Tank Dell left with a gruesome knee injury, adding to the cavalcade of injuries for the team. They have already clinched the AFC South and the playoffs, so the loss does not crush their playoff standings. Nico Collins will have to step up on Wednesday to give fans hope for the playoffs.
#5: Baltimore Ravens (10-5, t-1st in AFC North)
The Ravens evened the season series against the Steelers and clinched the playoffs on Saturday because of a great performance from their defense. The pick-six was the final nail in the coffin for the game. Now, the Ravens still need the Steelers to lose one of their final two games and Baltimore needs to win out. The good news is that Pittsburgh plays Kansas City this week. A win over Houston and Lamar Jackson could secure another division title.
#6: Los Angeles Chargers (9-6, t-2nd in AFC West)
The Chargers came storming back to beat the Broncos on Thursday and nearly secured their playoff spot. If they win against the Patriots on Saturday afternoon, they will secure a return to the playoffs. Jim Harbaugh has them in the playoff conversation after a miserable 2023 season and Thursday's win proved that.
#7: Denver Broncos (9-6, t-2nd in AFC West)
The Broncos had a 21-10 lead in the second quarter but collapsed to lose to the Chargers on Thursday. A win would have secured their playoff spot and the same is true for Week 17. They play the Bengals on the road, which is a tough matchup for their strong defense. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has been strong this year and can prove it in this game. If they lose, they will have another win-and-in scenario against the Chiefs in Week 18. They should be rooting for KC on Wednesday so they have nothing to play for in Week 18.
#8: Indianapolis Colts (7-8, 2nd in AFC South)
The Colts are in the eighth spot and hold the tie-breakers over the Dolphins and Bengals. That means they only have to look ahead to the Broncos for their playoff chances. They need to win both games, Week 17 against the Giants and Week 18 against the Jaguars. Then the Broncos or Chargers have to lose both of their games, Week 17 against the Bengals and Week 18 against the Chiefs. The Athletic gives them a 14% chance of making the postseason.
#9: Miami Dolphins (7-8, 2nd in AFC East)
The Dolphins have the tiebreaker over the Bengals but not over the Colts. So after their big win over the 49ers on Sunday, they need a lot of help. It starts with Miami winning out against the Browns and Patriots. Then, the Colts need to lose or tie at least one of their two games. And the Broncos or Chargers need to lose both of their games. If all of that happens, the Dolphins will make the playoffs. The Athletic gives them a 12% chance of making it.
#10: Cincinnati Bengals (7-8, 3rd in AFC North)
The Bengals are the last team with playoff chances in the AFC. They started 0-3, cratering any chance they had of making the playoffs but a remarkable stretch has them grasping to hope. They do not have a tiebreaker over the Colts or Dolphins but they play the Broncos and can clinch that tiebreaker. They need to win both games (v Broncos, @ Steelers), the Broncos need to lose in Week 18 to the Chiefs, and the Dolphins and Colts both need to lose or tie one of their final games. The Athletic says there is a 5% chance that happens.
